Free Picks

Home of Pandy's Picks Sharphorses Selection Service and The Diamond System Computer Handicapping System

Shop Amazon Books - Summer Reading for Adults

Formal notes: LS live longshot, PP preferred Play, BAL Bombs Away Longshot, BCL Boxcar Longshot, PS fits the Pro Simulcast spot play method. MA and MB are longshot spot play systems I've developed. 

FREE PICKS

No Free Picks Today

The Preakness wrap up by Bob Pandolfo

I'LL HAVE ANOTHER nailed the fast Bodemeister in the Preakness and confident young jockey Mario Guitierrez had actually stopped whipping and was just showing the classy colt the whip in the final yards. The Beyer came back 109 and to win with that figure with the whip put away is impressive. Of the last 11 horses to win the first two legs, I picked against 10 of them in the Belmont. Smarty Jones was the only horse that I picked to win the Belmont, although I wasn't that confident. Birdstone, the horse that upset Smarty Jones, was my third pick and I thought he had a good shot.

I've seen three Triple Crown winners, Seattle Slew, Secretariat, and the last horse to win the crown, Affirmed (1978). My theory is that it takes a great horse to win the Triple Crown, and that's why I almost always pick against it happening. But this year I may pick I'll Have Another. I'm not sure he's a great horse, but at this stage it's hard to imagine any three year old being ready to beat him. Bodemeister will not run in the Belmont. I'll Have Another has now won all four starts this year and he'll most likely get another perfect trip in the Belmont because he relaxes and rates so beautifully and he can finish strong. 

I thought Guitierrez rode perfectly in the Preakness because some jockeys would have tried to stay closer to the slow pace, but Mario just let his horse fall into his natural stride the way he likes, and then he timed his move just right. 

Saturday, May 19

The Diamond System Printout for The Preakness, automatic paceline option T (best of last 3 dirt routes)

Pandy's Preakness Analysis by Bob Pandolfo

RACE 12

CREATIVE CAUSE beat Bodemesiter in the San Felipe, and lost to I'll Have Another by a nose in the Santa Anita Derby. In the Kentucky Derby, CREATIVE CAUSE made a strong wide middle-move making up over 8 lengths into the teeth of a fast pace and over a track that favored front runners and only lost by 3 lengths; in this smaller field the well bred son of Giant's Causeway should get a better trip...I'LL HAVE ANOTHER has won all 3 of his starts this year in similar fashion, stalking the pacesetters and then finishing strong for the win; handy colt gets a perfect spot on the outside and should be shadowing Bodemeister throughout; one to beat...BODEMEISTER set a quick pace over a very fast track that was still wet in the Kentucky Derby and held gamely for the place although obviously shortening stride; one to catch but seems like a potential underlay to me.  In a shorter field, over a dry track, there's less of a chance of horses getting rough trips behind him so it won't be easy to go wire to wire...DADDY NOSE BEST earned a strong Diamond Rating winning the Sunland Derby then lacked a rally at Churchill; could improve. 

Kentucky Derby weekend wrap up by Bob Pandolfo

Overall the Diamond System did a pretty good job in the two major stakes races. In the Oaks, the winner Believe You Can paid $29.60 and was ranked 2nd by the system. The $3745.00 superfecta was 9-6-2-3 and those 4 horses were ranked two through five. In the Derby, the Kick Rating has done very well over the years and this year the top Kick Ratings were El Padrino 116, Creative Cause 110, I'll Have Another 108, Dullahan 108, Union Rags 107. Dullahan's rating was from a synthetic race and the Kick ratings tend to be higher on synthetic tracks. Kick Ratings are a powerful indicator for route races and turf races. 

I have to admit, I wasn't sure how to read the two stakes races that I'll Have Another won because Santa Anita is such a fast track. And I'll Have Another stalked relatively slow paces in those two wins and had what Harness handicappers would call perfect "pocket" trips in both races, sitting just behind the leader. In both races he finished strongly to win but he did not have to race wide, and again, the track at Santa Anita is so fast that it's hard to get excited by the final times. One thing that I'm happy about is that we seem to have created a good track par for Santa Anita, in the way it adjust the ratings for the Diamond System. It took us a while to get it right after all the changes that they made to the Santa Anita track over the past few years. 

In terms of the Derby itself, I think the track conditions had a big effect on the outcome of the race. The track was labeled "fast" but in my opinion, that is not what I would call a fast track. A fast track is dry. The track took on a lot of water during the day and night Friday and again Saturday morning. The track was "sealed muddy" to start the card, then went to "good" then fast as the day went on, but the track was still holding water and you could see that horses that raced off the pace came back with mud on them. I thought the track should have been labeled "good". 

The Churchill track favored speed Friday and Saturday and on Derby day the track was very fast. A filly, Groupie Gal, ran 7 furlongs in 1:20.2. It was a GR1 race, but still, when you see a horse go 1:20.2 you know the track is lightning fast, sealed, and wet. Sealed wet tracks tend to be speed favoring and produce fast times. A lot of people are going to get excited about the fractions that Bodemeister put up in the Derby, :22.1, :45.1, are certainly fast early fractions for a 10 furlong race. But in the 13th race, a maiden named Mr. Ticket went to the lead and went :22.2, :44.3 in a one mile (8f) race and won. Prior to this race Mr. Ticket's fastest half in his race races was :50. So he went over 5 seconds faster over the Derby track. In Mr. Ticket's last two races his speed figures were 76 and 74. He had one good figure, 91 in a 6 furlong race but that was over a sloppy track. 

So while it certainly looked like Bodemeister ran a big race, I doubt that he is the second coming of Seattle Slew. His fractions were artificially fast due to the lightning fast track conditions and he caught a speed track that favored his front running style. He's a fast horse but he may be a good horse to bet against in the Preakness. Another thing to look for when handicapping these horses for the rest of the year. Due to the speed favoring wet track, it favored front runners and stalkers, and horses that like wet tracks. There are a lot of horses that had excuses in the Derby. Union Rags was pinched back at the start and raced gamely. Creative Cause, a game colt, was farther back than he likes to be and made a game run. Horses that like race from off the pace were compromised by the track condition. The elements are part of racing and they came into play in the Derby this year. If the weather had been dry, the race would have been different because the closers would have gained more ground and there probably would have been a bunch of horses within a few lengths of each other at the finish. This is a nice crop of three year olds. 

Note: Wednesday's  (April 25) Free Pick (below) won and paid $14.00. 

RACE 2

SUMMER'S EMPIRE  finished strongly behind repeat winner against tougher claimers in first start off the bench, loves this track, handles off track well, runs for the same price tag but drops into a date restricted claimer...GOOD QUESTION dueled for the lead against tougher at Oaklawn in last, ran well in lone race over this track, drops and is the one to catch...SLEWZOOM hasn't in 11 months but returns at a sharply reduced level...FULL FLAME finished 2nd against similar as the 6-5 favorite but this field looks tougher.