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Home of Pandy's Picks Sharphorses Selection Service and The Diamond System Computer Handicapping System
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NFL Picks
Home of Pandy's Picks Sharphorses Selection Service and The Diamond System Computer Handicapping System
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Pandy's NFL Best BetsPandy's Super Bowl Wrap upThe Giants win over the Patriots pushed my record for the year to 33 wins against 21 losses against the spread for a 61% hit rate, which is an extremely high win percentage for sports betting. Millionaire professional sports bettor Billy Walters claims to have a win percentage of 58%. I have picked the Super Bowl on my website for the past 11 years and I've hit 9 Super Bowls against the spread (82%). The Super Bowl is a bit easier to pick than the regular season because during the season teams go through ups and downs and slumps so the best team doesn't always win. You have to give the Patriots credit, they are an extremely well coached and well run organization. They are the greatest team of their era and they consistently beat teams that have more talent on the field. In my opinion, the Giants have much more talent than the Patriots, yet the Patriots had the lead with less than 4 minutes to play. The Patriots don't have a top running back or a top wide receiver and their defense is young and inexperienced, yet they only lost 4 games all year. I'm disappointed that Aaron Rogers won the MVP award. Rogers is a great player I felt that Eli Manning deserved the MVP award this year. PANDY'S SUPER BOWL ANALYSIS Giants + 3.5 over Patriots (at Indianapolis) I'm picking the Giants here and I bet early before the line dropped because I think the line will move lower and it would not surprise me to see the Patriots 2 to 2.5 pt favorites on game day. I think you could make a good case that the wrong team is favored, but the odds makers make the line based on how the money will be bet, not on which team is the strongest. A key factor, the Patriots only played two teams with winning records during the season and lost both of those games, including the loss to the Giants in November. A few points I'd like to address. First of all, I've read some remarks on boards and from the media about reasons why the Patriots will win that go something like this..."The Giants already beat the Patriots this year and it's hard to beat a great team two times in one season" "Bill Belichick has never lost to a team twice in one season" "Tom Brady wants revenge for when the Giants ruined the Patriots unbeaten season in the 2008 Super Bowl" Let me say that these "reasons" for liking the Patriots are the reason why most bettors lose money; they are inconsequential and meaningless. Tom Brady is not going to try harder in this game because of any stupid revenge factor. It's the Super Bowl. Both teams are going to be playing their hearts out. Bill Belichick is a great coach but even if its true that one of his teams never lost to the same team twice in one year, that's also meaningless because there's a first time for everything. All this stuff about revenge, it's nonsense. There are two types of Super Bowls. A). One team is clearly superior and they win by out playing the other team, because they're better. B). The two teams are very closely matched and one team gets more lucky breaks (turnovers) than the other team and they win. If you look at the championship games from Sunday, both games were as close as you can get. The winning teams had better luck, the Ravens missed a field goal and had the winning touch down knocked out of the receivers hand, and the 49ers punt returner handed the Giants the win with two turnovers. Both games were B games, luck decided the outcome. So, in the Super Bowl, if it's a close game all the way, either the Giants or the Patriots will make one or two key mistakes that cost them game. Or, one team will play much better and win the game because they are the better team. I would say that around 70 to 75% of the Super Bowls are "A" games where one team is clearly better than the other team. Here's my analysis: First of all, the Giants beat the Patriots 24-20 when they met in November. In that game, which was played in New England, the stats on 1st downs, passing yards, running yards were almost identical. The Giants had 23 first downs, the Patriots had 23 first downs. The Giants ran for 111 yards, the Patriots ran for 106 yards. The Patriots had 82 yards more passing. Eli Manning was not sacked, Brady was sacked twice. So the first meeting between these two teams was close. A few key changes this time around. 1). The Patriots defense, which is ranked as one of the worst in football, is playing much better now. 2). The Giants defense, which is not well ranked either, is playing much better now. 3). The Giants played without their top rusher, Ahmad Bradshaw in the first matchup. 4). The Giants also played without wide receiver Hakeem Nicks in the first matchup. Nicks finished the season 12th in the league in receiving despite missing several games. The Patriots finished 2nd (behind New Orleans) in total offense. The Giants were 8th in total offense. But to my eyes, the Giants have more speed on offense. The Patriots pile up a lot of yard with short passes. The Giants can strike long with fast wide receivers. Neither team put up great defensive stats on the season. The Patriots was ranked 31st, the Giants defense was ranked 27th. But both teams have improved on defense. The Giants defense is really the key to this game. Both teams have potent scoring potential. But the Giants defense has been playing brilliantly in the playoffs. They held the powerful Green Bay offense to 20 points. They tossed a shutout against the Falcons in the 24-2 win, a tremendous defensive achievement. If you look the Giants last 5 games, all wins, the defense has given up an average of 13 points a game. The defensive front is as good as any in football, especially for rushing the quarterback. The secondary, which was terrible at times earlier in the year, has been playing extremely well. Of course another key to beating the Patriots is keeping the ball out of Tom Brady's hands. The Giants running game did not do well this year but has picked up steam in the playoffs, averaging 117 yards a game. I actually expect both teams to run the ball quite a bit. Truth is, both of these teams can control the clock, so that may be a toss up. But I think the Giants edge in Team speed, especially on offense, and their overall edge on defense, both in experience and talent, should make them tough to beat.
RECAP: I hit both bets Sunday, which put me at 7 wins against 3 losses for the playoffs. This pushed my record against the spread to 32 wins and 21 losses (60%). My record on Best Bets for the regular season was 58%. I've picked 8 out of the last 10 Super Bowl's correctly against the spread. Right now I'm leaning towards the Giants but I have to study some of the stats before giving my pick and analysis.Sunday, January 22Ravens +9 over Patriots (at New England) (Note, line has now dropped to 7.5, that's why I like to bet early in the week) (Patriots won 23-20, which means that this is a winning bet) Let me first say that I normally bet these games that I pick but I'm probably only going to make only a small wager this week because I don't have a strong feeling about the games. However, I still have an opinion on which strategy appears the smartest given the spread. In this game I'm taking the defense over the offense and going for the Baltimore Ravens +9 points. They beat the Patriots and dominated the game in the 2009 playoffs. But my main reasoning is that I believe the Ravens had a much tougher schedule than the Patriots this year. The Ravens played 7 games against 4 Playoff-bound teams this year and they won all of them. They beat the Steelers twice, they beat the Bengals twice, they beat the Texans twice, and they beat the 49ers 16-6. The Patriots played 3 playoff-bound teams in 4 games and only won two of those games. They lost to the Giants and the Steelers and they played the Broncos twice and won both games. The Ravens are battle tested and proven, they have consistently beaten some of the best teams in football. Overall through the years I've made money betting against the Patriots and Tom Brady, not that it's easy. The Patriots are explosive and can blow out any team on any given day. The most important key to beating Brady is the pass rush. Brady is very good when he has pass protection but out of all of the elite quarterbacks in the NFL, he is by far the worst when he gets pressured. He is a big guy who isn't that quick and he isn't that good when he gets rushed. The Ravens had 48 sacks this year, tied for 2nd in the NFL with the Giants. Another key to beating the Patriots is throwing long. New England was ranked 31st in passing defense this year. Now part of that was because they had a high scoring offense and teams had to throw to catch up, I realize that. But their pass defense isn't that good. Their defense did play a very good game against the Broncos last week, so they have improved. But the Ravens QB Joe Flacco has the strongest arm in the NFL and he can test the Patriots defense with long passes. The long passes are important to keep the safeties and linebackers from crowding the line of scrimmage so the Ravens can run the ball. The Patriots defense gave up an average of 4.6 yards per rush this year, which is not very good. The Ravens have one of the top defensives in the league, they allowed less than 17 points a game. They are solid all the way around, the excel against the run, they were ranked 4th against the pass. They can force turnovers and make game changing plays. But they will be under pressure because the Patriots confuse teams with their two tight end sets and with their little spark plug receiver Wes Welker running crossing patterns. In my opinion, to defense the Patriots, you have to cover their wide receivers one and one and double team Welker and big tight end Ron Gronkowski. The bottom line is, the Ravens have won all the games they played against the best teams in the league and New England only beat one playoff team, and that was the Denver Broncos, who were one of the weaker teams in the playoffs. Because of that, I just can't justify laying 9 points against a tough, hard-hitting, top defensive team like Baltimore. To me the wager is to take the points. One of my rules with underdogs, bet them when you feel that they can win out right and the Ravens are certainly capable of beating New England. Giants + 2.5 over 49ers (at San Francisco) (Giants won out right 20-17, win) I'm actually surprised I'm picking the Giants. I've been on the 49ers all year long, they are an outstanding team with a great defense, a very underrated quarterback, and a new head coach who has turned the team around. But the main reason I'm picking the Giants is that they have more SPEED. The Giants started this year with more injuries than any team in the league and question marks at the wide receiver spots. But they came out and went 6-2 in their first 8 games, and through that streak their rookie wide receiver Victor Cruz emerged as one of the most dangerous wide outs in the NFL. Cruz finished third in the league in yards, first in average yards per catch (18.7). But receiver Hakeem Nicks also had a big year for the Giants, even though he missed some time due to injuries he still finished 12th in the league in total yards. Cruz and Nicks are both capable of making big game-changing plays and quarterback Eli Manning is a great passer who can make pinpoint long passes in tight coverage. When they played during the season, the 49ers beat the Giants by 7 points in what was a close game. In that game, Ahmed Bradshaw, the Giants best overall running back, did not play. Bradshaw is also capable of making a big play. The 49ers normally play conservatively and try to win with ball control and defense. They have a great running back, Frank Gore, and solid but not spectacular receivers. Their tight end, Vernon Davis, has been making some clutch catches and I expect that he'll be a big part of their offense against the Giants. Teams that can run the ball well haven't been able to get through the playoffs to the championship game. The Broncos, Texans, and Saints all had more rushing yards than the remaining 4 teams and they are all out. It seems obvious that to win in the NFL now you need a very strong passing attack. And to get to the top of the heap, the Super Bowl, you need a solid defense and a strong passing attack. Although the 49ers defense is ranked much better (on stats) than the Giants, the Giants defense has really come on strong. In their last 4 games they have allowed an average of 12.5 points per game. I still think that the 49ers defense has a clear edge here, but the Giants offense is much stronger than the 49ers offense. This should be a tough game, and the team that prevails will probably win the Super Bowl. But I'll give the edge to the Giants because they have more weapons on offense, and a great passer who is having the best year of his career.
Weekend Recap: I picked all four underdogs and won 3 of 4 (75%). This kept my record at just over 58% wins on all of my NFL picks against the spread on the year. For the second year in a row I picked against the Saints in the playoffs and won again as the 49ers played a superb game in what will go down as one of the greatest post season games in NFL history. I also picked the Giants, and they probably would have won even easier if not for two horrible calls by the officials, a blown call on a fumble recovery, and a ridiculous roughing the passer call. Next week's game should be exciting. I'll have my analysis later in the week. In the NFC championship game we'll have a great defensive team (49ers) against a red-hot Giants team. In the AFC game, it will be defense (Ravens) against offense (Patriots).Saturday, January 1449ers + 3.5 over Saints (at San Francisco) (49ers won out right and covered 36-32, an amazing and exciting game, win) Here we have a classic match up of DEFENSE vs OFFENSE. One of the main ingredients that makes this game interesting is that the Saints play their best over artificial surfaces and inside of a doomed stadium. Astroturf is fast and helps their complicated, high-powered offense. The field in San Francisco is much tougher to play on, slower footing on real grass, and that is an edge for the 49ers. New Orleans scores a lot of points, second in the league in that category, but if you look at their road games, they score a lot more points at home. Atlantic held them to 26 points; Jacksonville held them to 23 points; Tennessee held them to 22 points; St Louis held them to 21 points; Tampa Bay held them to 20 points. All of these were road games. The 49ers have allowed 14.3 points a game (second in the league). They allowed only 77 yards rushing a game, best in the league. They have one of the elite defensive units in the NFL. Offensively, they will try to run with hard hitting Frank Gore. One of the big keys to the game is how San Francisco handles the blitzing Saints defense. I gave out the double-digit underdog Seattle Seahawks to cover against the Saints (in Seattle) last year and they won out right. Let's see if we can do it again. Broncos + 13.5 over Patriots (at New England) (New England destroyed the Broncos 45-10, loss) Obviously the Patriots are a well coached team with a potent offense. They beat the Broncos, in Denver, 41-23 last month. The Broncos played well in the first half of that game but four fumbles killed them. Denver has its confidence soaring after upsetting the top defensive team in the football last week. The most interesting key to this game is the long passing game of the Broncos. When they upset the Steelers last weekend, they did it with stout defense, but on offense they hit 5 long passes downfield. The best way to attack the Steelers is to go after their cornerbacks because of their great linebackers and run defense. Well, when playing New England, teams sometimes make the mistake of throwing too many short passes. The Patriots have a poor pass defense (ranked 31st in the league). If Tim Tebow can keep the hot hand again, and throw the ball deep, the Patriots secondary, and linebackers, will have to drop back to help their cornerbacks. This could result in long runs by quarterback Tim Tebow, who is the best running quarterback in football. I'll take the Broncos to cover this spread. Sunday, January 15Texans +9 over Ravens (at Baltimore) (Best Bet) (The Texas lost but played well and covered the spread, win) When you watch the Texans, it's hard to believe that this is the same defense that blew so many big leads last year. This year they have developed into a top defensive unit. So both of these teams are similar. They are defensive teams. Offensively, the Texans ranked 10th in points scored and the Ravens ranked 12th in points scored. They both like to run the ball. Baltimore has a big edge at quarterback with strong-armed Joe Flacco, who has a lot more experience than Yates. The Texans are down to their third string quarterback, rookie Taylor Yates, after injuries to their other QBs. But Yates has done a fine job. I just think 9 points is a lot of points for two top defensive teams that like to run and are closely matched in talent. There's no reason why this shouldn't be a close game. This is my Best Bet. Giants +8 over Packers (at Green Bay) (The Giants won 37-20, win) I put a bet in early when the Giants were getting 9. As you may recall, when the Giants won the Super Bowl a few years ago, they went to Green Bay, on a brutally cold day, and upset the Packers and Brett Farve. Green Bay had a tougher defense back then. Now they are an offensive powerhouse with gunslinger Aaron Rogers throwing to a host of sharp receivers. The Giants defense was horrible at times this season but in the last three games their big defensive line is finally healthy and playing to its ability, and the secondary is playing much better, too. They will pressure Rogers, but despite that, Rogers will get his passes off. He is a great athletic with a quick release and outstanding ability to throw on the run. The Giants secondary will be under tremendous pressure here. So the Giants defense is not going to shut out the Packers like they did Atlanta last week. The key for the Giants D is to make a few key stops in critical third down situations. No one is going to stop the Packers, you just have to slow them down. Offensively, the Giants have to be aggressive and mix up their plays well. The key could be the running game. Although the Giants running game is ranked low this year, recently the offensive line blocking has improved. The best way to beat Rogers is to keep him off the field, so the Giants will try to engineer long drives, which they are capable of doing. The Packer defense is ranked last in the NFL in total yards given up. This should be an exciting game featuring two of the greatest passers in the NFL. RECAP FROM LAST WEEK Weekend recap: Started the weekend out great on Saturday but lost both bets on Sunday. Sunday was a great example of why the NFL is so popular as Denver played a magnificent game and posted a huge upset over the Pittsburgh Steelers. Denver's defense was swarming, especially in the first half, and quarterback Tim Tebow made several pinpoint long passes against the vaulted Steeler defense. It really was a strong game plan for Denver because the best way to attack the Steelers is to throw deep, they have the best linebacker core in the sport and they are tough to attack through running and short passes. But the long passes opened up the offense for Denver. Great game. As for the Giants, wow. The big surprise for the Giants was the secondary, which was horrible at times this year. Sunday against a talented Atlanta team the Giants secondary played exceptionally well and the Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan had trouble finding open receivers. The Giants defensive line is one of the best in football so that bodes well for next week. I'll have my picks and analysis for next week in a few days but I'm leaning Giants +9 over Green Bay and and San Francisco + 3.5 against the Saints. Saturday, January 7Texans -3 over Bengals (at Houston) (Texans won 31-10, covered, won) This is an interesting matchup of two of the best defensives, and both teams have rookie quarterbacks starting. The Texans were doing a good job with third string QB Yates, winning three in a row, then suddenly went into a late season tailspin and lost the last three. But, they will be much more focused in this home playoff game and I think they have a better overall team than Cincinnati. Saints -10.5 over Lions (at New Orleans) (Saints won 45-28, covered, won) Detroit can score and they have a good pass rush, but so can New Orleans. These are similar teams. However, New Orleans is tough to beat in the Dome and they have a lot more experience in these types of games. In my opinion, Detroit is more likely to make mistakes. Also, Detroit has a poor secondary and their only chance to stop this powerful offense and Drew Brees (and all his weapons) is to put a big pass rush on, but Brees gets rid of the ball quickly and the Saints always have a smart offensive plan. Both teams have struggled at defense but the Saints are more likely to make some big plays on defense, they can force turnovers. Sunday, January 8Early Pick and Best Bet of the weekend. Got off to a good start in the playoffs with two wins yesterday, let's see what happens today. Steelers -9 over Broncos (at Denver) (Denver upset in over time 29-23, lost) Just in case the line goes up, I'm taking the Steelers over the Broncos early here and laying the 9 points. Big Ben's ankle looked a lot better last weekend and teams have figured out how to defense Tim Tebow by containing him in the pocket. Pittsburgh plays with great intensity and the Broncos really have a weak passing offense, one of the worst in football. The Steelers will not let the Broncos beat them with the ground game. Denver's only shot is for their fine defense to keep the game close but the Steelers defense can score points with turnovers to help the offense out. Falcons +3 over Giants (at New Jersey) (Giants won 24-2, lost) When I don't root for the Jets I root for the Giants but even though I'm partial, my gut feeling is that the Falcons are a better overall team. The Giants defensive line finally started to play to its potential recently, and that's how they got into the playoffs. But most of the year the Giants defense did not play well, especially the secondary. The Falcons are one of the best rushing teams but they also have a very good passing game. Eli Manning has had a sensational season for the Giants and he also has dangerous receivers, so this could be a shootout. Atlanta has a better overall balance, they can run, they can pass, they can play defense. The Giants best chance to cover is to go sack crazy with their strong pass rush. Sunday, January 1The closing weekend was a good example of why the NFL is so exciting and successful. Yesterday I liked the Lions to beat Green Bay because the Packers would be resting some of their best players and starting their second string quarterback, Matt Flynn, who would be making his 2nd NFL start in this third year in the league, on a cold windy day against a good pass rushing defense. I figured Flynn would be rusty and that Detroit, who needed the game for a better spot in the Playoffs, would score a lot of points and cover the spread. Flynn came out and had the best statistical game that a Green Bay Packer quarterback has ever had, 480 yards and an amazing 6 touch down passes. This is a team that has three of the greatest quarterbacks of all time, Bart Starr, Brett Farve, and Aaron Rogers, but Flynn out played them all. Amazing. Flynn is a free agent and will probably be a starting quarterback next year. I hope the NY Jets get him (I'm a Jets fan). Flynn has played 8 quarters in the NFL and has 9 touch down passes. As for the Giants/Cowboy game, I still think I made a good pick there. Dallas just blew the first half and the combined score equaled 45 points. My Best Bets ended the season with a 58% win percentage, which is very good. I'll be providing analysis and selections for all of the NFL playoff games and the Super Bowl. Lions - 3 1/2 over Green Bay (at Green Bay) (lost) The Packers are obviously the better team, especially at home but they have nothing to play for in this game. Detroit can help themselves get a better seeding for the playoffs if they win this game. I doubt that Rogers will play much for Green Bay and the Lions moved the ball well against Green Bay on Thanksgiving day and they been playing well the last few games. Dallas at Giants over 46 1/2 (lost) Big game in New Jersey for the division title and a playoff berth. Both teams are 8-7 and are very similar. Both have strong defensive lines and good pass rushes, both have struggled to stop the pass. We also get two strong passers in Romo and Eli Manning and Dallas has been running the ball well. The Giants defense has been terrible in the second half of the season and the only chance they have is to win a shootout. I'll take the over. Record Against The Spread as of Sunday, January 1: 25-18 (58%). Based on lines provided by covers.com Saturday, December 24Chiefs -1 over Raiders (at Kansas City) (Chiefs lost a tough game, loss) The Chiefs come off a big upset win over the previously undefeated Green Bay Packers but they won't bounce because they still have an outside chance at the Playoffs and play a key division rival today. The Raiders have lost last 3 and make a lot of mistakes. Kansas City has a very good defense, and new starting QB Kyle Orton had a big game last week. The Chiefs struggled with a weak QB but Orton made a big difference last week. Panthers -9 over Buccaneers (at Carolina) (Carolina crushed 48-16 in an easy cover, win) I really should have bet this game earlier in the week, the line has risen 2 points. Tampa Bay has lost 8 straight, their defense has completely fallen apart, and the offense has been pretty bad too. Carolina is playing much better than their 5-9 record indicates. Steelers -12 over Rams (at Pittsburgh) (Pittsburgh shut out the Rams 27-0, win) Pittsburgh will be without Big Ben at QB but veteran Charlie Batch usually does well and he can run. This is one of the worst offensive teams in the NFL against the top ranked defense and Pittsburgh is fighting for division title. Record Against The Spread as of Sunday, December 24: 25-16. Based on lines provided by covers.com Sunday, December 18Bengals -7 over Rams (at St Louis) (Bengals won by 7, push) The Rams just signed Kellen Clemens to play quarterback for this game. The Bengals have been faltering but they need the win to stay alive for a wild card berth and their defense is solid. This is a tough spot for Clemens, who has only had two practices with the Rams. Dolphins -1 over Bills (at Buffalo) (Dolphins won and covered easily, win) The Dolphins beat the Bills 35-8 last month and Buffalo has now lost 6 games in a row. Miami has a solid defense and although the offense sputtered against the Eagles last week, they've been playing much better the second half of the season. Steelers +3 over 49ers (at San Francisco) (Steelers lost 20-3, loss) The 49ers have lost two of their last three since they wrapped up their division title early. The Steelers are in a 4 way tie and should be more motivated here. Pittsburgh will play without James Harrison on defense, he is suspended for this game. But the 49ers are struggling again on offense and have allowed 18 quarterback sacks over the past three games, not a good sign against the Steelers. Record Against The Spread as of Sunday, December 18: 23-15. Based on lines provided by covers.com Pandy's analysis: Rating NFL quarterbacks --Although I analyze stats when I do my NFL handicapping and betting, statistics don't tell the whole story. For instance, I've read many comments from NFL fans on forums which point to things like "Quarterback Rating" or "Percentage of completions." Let's look at completion percentage. The NY Jets used to have a quarterback named Chad Pennington. He is the all time NFL percentage QB, completing 66% of his passes throughout his career. But Pennington was not a top quarterback because he threw mostly short passes. A quarterback's main job is to score points and a great quarterback must be able to throw long accurately. When I analyze quarterbacks, the things I look for are not always in the stats. For instance, I like quarterbacks that can complete passes when their pass protection breaks down. I also like guys who can consistently complete passes that are longer than 20 yards. Long completions are the key because a quarterback who can throw long accurately can bring his team back from behind in the last quarter, or bury a team with long scoring plays. The two best passers in the NFL right now are Aaron Rogers and Eli Manning. Rogers has a strong, accurate arm, a quick release, and he is outstanding at getting his passes off when his pass protection breaks down. He throws on the run extremely well and he can also run for first downs. He is a great quarterback and really in a class by himself in the NFL right now. Eli Manning can't run like Rogers, but Eli leads the lead in long pass completions (over 20 yeards) and just tied a record for the most TDs thrown in the 4th quarterback, 14, set by Johnny Unitas and Peyton Manning. Eli leads all NFL quarterbacks in passing during the 4th quarter and has brought his team back from a 4th quarter deficit to win an outstanding 20 times in his career. Dan Marino is the all time leader in 4th quarter come-from-behind wins with 36, John Elway is second with 34. Marino and Elway are two of the top 5 quarterbacks of all time in my opinion. Eli Manning is as good or better than any other quarterback in the game right now, except Aaron Rogers. Eli completes many of these amazing passes while he is being knocked to the ground or under pressure, and that is the key element that doesn't show up in the stats. Quarterbacks tend to get too much credit when their team wins and too much blame for losing. The two biggest bets I've ever made where in Super Bowl's and the two teams I won with, Tampa Bay and the Washington Redskins did not have star quarterbacks. You don't need a top quarterback to win if you have a good all around team with a top defense. On the other hand, as proven by the collapse of the Indianapolis Colts, on some teams the quarterback is very important. The Colts have not been able to win a single game without their great quarterback Peyton Manning. This year the most valuable quarterback has been Eli Manning because the Giants have had several key injuries on the receiver corps, the running game hasn't done well, and the defense has been playing terribly, yet the Giants are still in the playoff race, tied for first in their division because Eli Manning is making impossible pin point passes. Years ago I was watching a game where Dan Marino brought the Dolphins back from behind to beat a team with a top defense. When asked how he did it against such a good defense, Marino said, "There's no defense for the perfect pass." The NFL'S top quarterbacks: 1). Aaron Rogers (strong accurate arm, can run for first downs and and throws extremely well on the run, quick release, performs well when his pass protection fails). 2). Eli Manning (always played brilliantly at times but this year he has put it all together and is having his best season; strong, accurate arm, runs the two minute drill as well as anyone in the game, has been masterful at bringing his team back from 4th quarter deficits, has kept the Giants in contention during a season in which their receivers have been hurt, their running game has faltered, and their defensive unit has played progressively worse. He should actually be the league's MVP because without him the Giants would have a hard time winning a game this year). 3). Jay Cutler (injured right now but could return; underrated quarterback tossed some amazing passes under heavy pressure the past couple of seasons with the Bears, who do not have good pass protection. Cutler can throw better while falling to the ground than most quarterbacks can with good protection. Consistently gets pounded into the turf, gets up and just keeps throwing strikes. Unfortunately, his injury is a game changer for Chicago and they will most likely not make the playoffs without him.) 4). Drew Brees (he's a very accurate passer, especially for a guy who isn't that big, but he is helped by being on a team with a lot of weapons and solid pass protection. Brings strong leadership qualities). 5). Tom Brady (a bit overrated because the truth is, he is not as good as the other elite quarterbacks when his protection breaks down. When he has time to throw, which he usually does, he can pick you apart. Strong, accurate passer, great play caller, excellent leadership. But he is clumsy and slow footed and if you can put a pass rush on him he is not the same quarterback. The other quarterbacks in the top 5 are all better at throwing the ball accurately under pressure, Brady needs pass protection. Still, he gets the job done) 6). Ben Roethlisberger (is not a great passer but his strength is his strength, he is strong and very hard to bring down, consequently, he is very good under pressure and he has to be because the Steelers have had problems protecting the passer. He does the little things to help his team win, like running for a first town, or making that difficult throw while being knocked to the ground).
Sunday, December 11Dolphins -3 over Eagles (at Miami) - (Eagles won) Michael Vick returns for the Eagles but against one of the toughest defenses in the league. After struggling to score for the past few seasons, Miami has turned things around with their substitute QB Matt Moore, who is playing very well. One of the hottest teams in the leage, Miami, against one of the biggest disappointments, Philadelphia. Chargers - 7 over Bills (at San Diego) - (San Diego won and covered the spread easily) Buffalo started hot but has fallen apart. The Chargers have some of their injured players back and they looked good Monday night. For some reason Chargers seem to play their best in the second half of the season. They need a coaching change but they have the talent to blow the sinking Bills out. Record Against The Spread as of Sunday, December 11: 22-14. Based on lines provided by covers.com Sunday, December 4Packers - 6.5 over Giants (at New Jersey) (The Giants played gallantly, especially Eli Manning the and offense, and covered so I lost this one as Green Bay won by 3 points) Record Against The Spread as of Sunday, December 4: 21-13. Based on lines provided by covers.com This should be a high scoring game and probably a game good game tease the over (which is 53 1/2) but my pick is the Packers to cover. The Giants won 3 in a row, went to San Francisco and played very well in a loss, but they fell apart the past two weeks, losing to Philadelphia and getting dismantled by New Orleans last week. What was disturbing last week, they did not mount any sort of pass rush against the Saints. Earlier in the year they had the best pass rush in football, but the past few games the defensive front four have tailed off sharply. If the Giants don't pressure the QB they are vulnerable because their secondary is not playing well. Another big problem, the Giants running game has been terrible. The positive for the Giants is QB Eli Manning, who is having a sensational season. The past few years Eli lost his two favorite receivers, Steve Smith and Plexico Burris, then some of his key offensive players were injured this year and he had to adjust to a rookie receiver( Victor Cruz) and play with no running game. But Eli responded. He has passed for 3358 years, which is only 117 yards less than Aaron Rogers. Last week Eli completed 33 of 47 passes against the Saints. Eli Manning is a star quarterback and a great passer, but he can't play defense or run the ball and against his high scoring offense the Giants are going to hard pressed to keep it close. If you like to play teasers, a good three team 10 pointer should be Atlantic +11, Washington +11 1/2, and Denver +11. My criteria for a teaser is to stick with games that appear low scoring and back teams with good defenses. These three teams fit the profile. Sunday, November 27Texans -6 over Jaguars (at Jacksonville) (Texans won and covered, lost their starting QB late in the second quarter and had to go with their third string QB but still covered the spread, winning 20-13). Won all three bets this week. The Jaguars have a very good defense but so does Houston. The big difference is the offense. The Texans have a lot of weapons and a strong running game. Even with their second string quarterback, Matt Leinart, they should cover this spread which has risen fromo 3 1/2 to 6 points. Jacksonville has a pathetic offense. Record Against The Spread as of Sunday, November 27: 21-12. Based on lines provided by covers.com Thursday, November 24Dolphins +7 over Cowboys (at Dallas) Dallas won 20-19, won both bets 6 pt teaser: Dolphins +13 and the over 38.5 Both teams are riding a 3 game winning streak. For most teams, losing the starting quarterback to an injury is a killer but Miami has come to life under their new leader, Matt Moore. Moore has a strong arm and is an accurate passer; he is not an overnight sensation, he has had quite a few excellent games in his short NFL career but was set back by injuries a few times including 2008 when he missed the whole season. Both teams have shaky pass defenses but can protect well against the run. Dallas usually plays well on Thanksgiving but Miami has to be confident. They looked horrible the first 7 games and the season appeared lost but they were awesome the last three games, so they come into this riding a high behind their new leader. Taking the points and the Dolphins seems the smarter play here. I also like a two way teaser here, shaving 6 points off the over (which is 44.5) and adding 6 points to the Dolphins.
Sunday, November 20Bad week, 1-3 as the Bears covered for me for the second straight week. Record ATS as of Sunday, November 20: 18-12. After a slow start I hit 12 straight winners against the spread, then I've been hot and cold since but still have a nice profit. Cowboys - 7 over Redskins (at Washington) (Cowboys won but didn't cover) The Cowboys are still in the race and finally playing to their potential. The Redskins usually play the Cowboys tough but they are without wide receiver Santa Moss again and they are struggling to score points as usual. Since starting the season 3-1 the Skins have lost 5 in a row. Giants - 5.5 over Eagles (at New Jersey) (Giants lost) The Eagles will be without Vick in this Sunday night match up and they weren't that good with him, plus wide receiver Jerry Maclin is questionable. The Eagles defense seems to run out of steam in the second half. For the Giants, Eli Manning is playing sensationally at QB right now and the Giants are healthier now than they've been all year. Even without a solid running game right now, the Giants should be able to score enough to cover. Cardinals +10 over 49ers (at San Francisco) (49ers won and covered) I've been on the 49ers bandwagon all year but this is a lot of points for a team to cover that is essentially a ball control defensive team. The Cardinals have been a much tougher team in last four games since the Bye week winning last 2 starts and before that they played two solid games against Baltimore and Pittsburgh. Bears - 4 over Chargers (at Chicago) (Bears covered and won easily) The Bears have a true leader in QB Jay Cutler, who can pass more accurately throwing off his wrong foot while about to get hammered than most QBs can with no pressure. The Chargers have key injuries on their offensive line and their receivers just aren't getting open the way they used to. The Bears come into this game red hot.
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