Boxcar Longshots
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I'm going to post some horses that won at prices using my methods. Further down below I have posted some live tests I did with longshots that were based on a couple of systems I was testing at the time. These eventually found their way into my books, such as Pace Handicapping Longshots, or my software, The Diamond System:

Longshots that won and were picked based on my methodology: 

Saratoga August 28, 2016

Avery Maeve $34.20 turf sprint (this horse had the highest ESR and was a Pace Shape Longshot, so it fit two of my longshot angles

Saratoga August 27, 2016

Arrogate $25.40 Top Diamond Pick in Travers Stakes, also had top Late Power Pace figure of 137

Saratoga August 25, 2016

Saluda $50.00 dirt sprint (tied with top ESR and was the top ranked Diamond Pace horse in this race)

 

 

 

 

FORMAT NOTES: BAL stands for Bombs Away Longshot***. BCL stands for Boxcar Longshot****

Note: Method B, like Method A, produced a steady profit with Boxcar Longshots and these picks are now included for regular subscribers. Both of these tests were recorded for all to see on our Free Picks page. These are systems that I developed. I am giving out these methods in books, the first book is Pace Handicapping Longshots, which is available now on the Longshot Book page and the Products page.

Note: I've completed the Method B Boxcar Longshot experiment. Below are the final results. The experiment ran from Sept. 23 through November 10. I've also posted the interim results from Oct. 21. Both stretches showed a profit and the total of the two showed a profit. There was an overall profit on win bets, place bets, and exacta boxes using the top two. All plays based on $2 wagers. The prior test of Method A showed a profit so both Method A and Method B picks are now included for subscribers. 

Final results: Picks 88, Winners 12 = 14%. Ran 2nd, 16 = 18%. Ran 1st or 2nd (placed) 28 = 32%. Return on win bets $190.40 for a profit of $14.40 or 8%. Return on place bets $209.00 profit of $33.00 or 19%. Return on win and place bets $399.40 for a profit of $47.40 or 13%. Top two exacta boxes, total wagered for $2 exacta boxes = $352.00, total returned $621.00, for a profit of $269.00 or 76%

Some recent or past Boxcar Longshot winners:

Wednesday, November 10, METHOD B Boxcar Longshots

AQUEDUCT

RACE 1

2 INDIAN RUSH 5, 8 (out)

RACE 9

7 FIRST DAY 5

Race: 9 Win Place Show
1st 7 First Day 25.40 13.00 7.80
2nd 6 Second and One 8.50 4.80
3rd 10 Sully's Landing 3.90
4th 11 Token Sacrifice
$2 D/Double 8/7 188.50
$2 Exacta 7-6 215.00
$2 Trifecta 7-6-10 1096.00
$2 Superfecta 7-6-10-11 8190.00
Refunds: 8
bullet

ARLINGTON

RACE 2

2 LAGUNA AMIGA 8,7 (ran 2nd paid $9.40 to place

RACE 3

5 BOOT TAILS 8, 4, 3 (ran 2nd paid $7.00 to place, had the $53.80 exacta)

Race: 3 Win Place Show
1st 8 Vice Lord 7.60 4.60 3.00
2nd 5 Boot Tails 7.00 4.40
3rd 6 Sleek Ridge 6.60
4th 3 Therion
$2 D/Double 9/8 162.60
$2 Exacta 8-5 53.80

RACE 4

 Two Boxcar Longshots in this race, 9 and 11

9-ALABAMA CLAY (ran out)

11-MASTERSPEAK 1 (won and paid $48.20, COLD $245.60 exacta)

Race: 4 Win Place Show
1st 11 Master Speak 48.20 20.40 9.40
2nd 1 General Darby 5.00 3.00
3rd 7 Nemo Landing 3.20
4th 4 Canadian Lynx
$2 D/Double 8/11 232.00
$2 Exacta 11-1 245.60

RACE 6

3 HIEROGLYPH 10, 6 (ran 3rd paid $6.20 to show)

 

Update, Thursday, October 21. Here are the stats of these Method B Boxcar Longshots from Sept. 23 through Oct. 20: Picks 62, Winners 7 = 11%. Ran 2nd, 12 = 19%. Ran 1st or 2nd (placed) 19 = 31%. Return on win bets $126.60, for a profit $2.60 or 2%. Return on place bets $158.40, for a profit of $34.40 of 28%. Return on win and place bets $285.00, total bet on $2 win and place is $248.00 for a profit of $37.00 or 15%. Top two exacta boxes, total wagered for $2 exacta boxes = $248.00, total returned $516.80 for a profit of $268.80 or 108%. 

Note, Method A as it's now called produced a steady profit with Boxcar Longshots and those picks are now included for regular subscribers. I am now testing Method B on the Free Picks page and the picks are experimental. Click on the Free Picks page to see the Method B Boxcar Longshots which will be displayed on that page each day. 

 

Boxcar Longshots (experimental, Method A)

Starting Monday, May 3, I posted Boxcar Longshots on the free picks page as a testing period. 

I finished updating the stats as of June 20, complete. The profit dropped from 24% to 6% but that's excellent, especially with little or no handicapping, just computer handicapping, mainly The Diamond System. I haven't finished all the exacta stats but the profit for boxing the top 2 picks is substantial. From May 13 through June 20, the latest period I checked, a $2 exacta box of top two picks produced an enormous profit of $188.90, or 81% on the dollar. I bet with rebates with that would give me close to a 90% profit on exactas alone. There were several trifectas in top 3 also and on Thursday, June 10 at Woodbine, the Boxcar Longshot won and I had the $1957.30 Superfecta cold. 

Overall, the experiment was a success, as I figured it would be. I actually think I can improve on the win profit by including only maiden races, some claiming races, and a few stakes races (eliminating open claiming races and allowance races, which are the toughest races to play). Plus, there was a bit of a slump on the Boxcar Longshots in June, the profit probably will go up again. The highest priced winner was $51.00, but I know that I will have winners that pay higher than that in the future, maybe even over $100.00.  Starting in July, these picks will be included for all subscribers and will be more selective, less plays and only certain types of races. I will continue to have free picks on this page once a week, Saturday or Sunday. 

STATS since May 3, as of and including Saturday, June 20, Experiment complete

BOXCAR LONGSHOTS 217
WINNERS (30)@ $51.20, $37.40, $34.20,$30.20, $25.80, $22.70, $21.60, $21.00, $17.00, $15.60, $14.80, $13.20, $12.00,$11.80,  $11.20,  $11.00, $10.80, $10.80, $10.60, $10.40, $9.80, 49.20, $9.00, $8.80, $8.20, $8.00, $7.80, $6.60, $5.60, $3.80
WIN% 14%
BET $434.00
RETURN $459.61
PROFIT $25.61 (6%)

Thursday, May 13

ARLINGTON PARK

RACE 1

7 STITCHNTWINE (6) DI-R2

RACE 2

7 GREY KNIGHT (4) DI-EG-R2

Race: 2 Win Place Show
1st 7 Grey Knight 34.20 10.40 21.80
2nd 6 Nemo Landing 4.40 10.00
3rd 3 Coach Abs 14.60
4th 4 Flying by the Pole
$2 D/Double 5/7 66.60
$2 Exacta 7-6 160.40
$2 Trifecta 7-6-3 896.80
$2 Superfecta 7-6-3-4 1433.00
Refunds: None

Monday, May 10

PHILADELPHIA

RACE 6

1 LOVE RIDGE (6,2) DI-DP-L

FINGER LAKES

RACE 5

3 TRY SMILING (7,6) DI-EG-L

INDIANA DOWNS

RACE 4

3 MAJESTIC JANE (4,1) IP-L

RACE 5

7 R P INDY (1), DI-+

RACE 9

7 WEB WE WEAVE (5) EG-L

Race: 9 Win Place Show
1st 7 Web We Weave 51.20 35.00 12.20
2nd 5 Lucky Start 4.40 2.60
3rd 6 Just Ferdie 3.40
4th 9 Jimmy's Toy
$2 Exacta 7-5 251.00
$2 Trifecta 7-5-6 947.20
$2 Superfecta 7-5-6-9 2341.00
Refunds: None

 

Monster score Saturday, April 17, and I put it on this page on free picks as well as the subscription picks, see below. $1896.40 trifecta and $296.40 exacta for 3 horse $2 boxes, wow. Some people asked me how I came up with these horses. Well, Bushwhacked was a horse I've followed since his first start because he had one of the most impressive workouts at the sales last year. I gave him out when he broke his maiden. As for the rest of the horses, check out the Diamond Ratings for this race. As you can see, the Diamond Ratings pick 4-6-8-2, I picked it 4-2-8-6. Exhi, the lognshot winner, had run by far the best race of his career in his first start on Polytrack and was trained by Pletcher, who I believe has now won this race (Lexington) 3 years in a row. 

Saturday, April 17

 

KEENELAND

 

RACE 9 COOLMORE LEXINGTON STAKES

 

4 BUSHWHACKED**** 8-1 BCL 2C
2 UPTOWNCHARLYBROWN 4-1
8 EXHI 8-1
6 PRINCE WILL I AM 10-1

BUSHWHACKED finished strongly from the rail to break maiden over this track and is bred to run long, Hall of Fame trainer puts him way up in class into a Gr2 but he has a very good record in Graded stakes races; upset call in a wide open race...UPTOWNCHARLYBROWN tries synthetic surface with suitable pedigree...EXHI has speed and comes off best race of his career in his first start over a synthetic surface...PRINCE WILL I AM ran a big figure two back then chased Eskendereya in last, picks up Borel and is bred to handle this type of surface. 

Race: 9 Win Place Show
1st 8 Exhi 41.80 16.80 8.60
2nd 4 Bushwhacked 6.80 4.80
3rd 2 Uptowncharlybrown 4.20
4th 12 Chief Counsel
$2 D/Double 7/8 111.80
$2 Exacta 8-4 296.40
$2 Trifecta 8-4-2 1896.40
$2 Superfecta 8-4-2-12 19858.20
Refunds: None

 

 

Note: We had a monster weekend with 7 top winners in 14 picks, and free pick here (see below) Endorsement won impressively at 2-1 at Oaklawn, wire to wire going two turns for the first time. 

TAMPA BAY

RACE 5 TURF ONLY

8 SOUTHERN BLUES* 2-1 LS
3 VEE 2-1
6 BELLE BREEZE 4-1
1 AHH 9-1

Picks are for turf only. SOUTHERN BLUES broke slow in debut at Gulfstream, made a bold 4 wide move to reach contention then flattened out in the stretch; well  bred filly ships in for Hall of Fame trainer and gets top rider...VEE also ships in from Gulfstream for very good turf trainer, beaten favorite appears the one to beat...BELLE BREEZE finsihed well for a tag in debut, hard to knock despite stepping up in class...AHH also ships in from Gulfstream where she showed little in 3yo bow but she has trained sharply on the turf and could improve at a price here. 

Saturday, February 20

OAKLAWN

RACE 8

9 ENDORSEMENT* 2-1 LS
4 SARATOGA YANKEE 7-2
3 DELONG ROAD 5-1
1 CHANNELING 9-1

ENDORSEMENT was wide and ran a big last quarter from outside post in first start going long at Fair Grounds; well bred colt seems destined for better...SARATOGA YANKEE always runs his race...DELONG ROAD showed speed in debut, stretches out with suitable pedigree for Lukas...CHANNELING debuts in a tough spot but this trainer is very good with longshot firsters going short or long. 

Monday, February 15

AQUEDUCT

RACE 6

2 FREUD'S NOTEBOOK** 8-5 
4 STARJETTA 7-2
5 SHERIA 7-2
7 EVERY LITTLE THING 6-1

FREUD'S NOTEBOOK always ran like a filly that wanted more distance, changed hands in December and ran two big races in routes, a placing behind a repeat winner, then she broke her maiden in a key race last start and she had a rough trip where she was bumped a couple of times then trapped, cleared late and surged...STARJETTA stalked a hot pace, took the lead but was out-kicked by the heavy favorite while holding the place in a sharp return effort, the only horse that raced close to the pace that was still there at the finish in a race that set up for closers; training sharply and this improving filly has a chance at a price (note: I've never had much luck with this rider otherwise I'd make this filly a Live Longshot here, she does have a shot at a price)....SHERIA set a quick pace loose on the lead and drew off in hand to beat much weaker, can't eliminate off that big figure....EVERY LITTLE THING improving sort for sharp barn. 

 

Saturday, January 23

GULFSTREAM

RACE 10

2 HISTORY AHEAD* 7-2 LS PS
10 FURIOUS RUN 7-2
9 SARAH'S TIGER 4-1
7 EVENFOREVER 6-1

HISTORY AHEAD left fast and wide from post 9 and forced a blazing :22.1 opening quarter over a wet turf course, held well until tiring on the final turn an in improved effort in 2nd career start; drops in for a tag for good barn, talented turf rider Lenzano stays, upset call...FURIOUS RUN made a nice middle-moved in turf debut but tired; returns for hot Pletcher barn and drops in for a tag, key rival...SARAH'S TIGER drops in for a tag for hot barn, picks up a top turf rider...EVENFOREVER shows steady improvement. 

Race: 10 Win Place Show
1st 2 History Ahead 10.60 5.60 4.00
2nd 10 Furious Run 5.00 3.60
3rd 12 Worried Man 6.20
4th 7 Evenforever
4th 9 Sarah's Tiger
$2 D/Double 6/11 9.00
$2 D/Double 6/2 65.20
$2 Exacta 2-10 60.60
$2 Trifecta 2-10-12 390.40
$2 Superfecta 2-10-12-7 1071.20
$2 Superfecta 2-10-12-9 970.00
Refunds: 11,13,14,15,16

 Saturday, October 3, we gave out one free race with a Live Longshot and a Bombs Away Longshot and they ran first and second and the exacta paid $108.60! (see below). 

Saturday, October 3

DELAWARE

RACE 8

5 TIZAHIT* 7-2 LS
3 MS VANENZZA*** 5-1 BAL 2C
8 SUZANNE 5-1
6 POTOSINA 5-1

TIZAHIT is well bred to run long and won gamely at first asking while going two turns in debut for good barn, can upset closing off what should be a disputed pace...MS VANENZZA finished well sprinting in debut, which was over a wet track; bred more for speed and wet but track could be wet today...SUZANNE was in tough last start at Arlington but returns to dirt and made a big wide move on the final turn to break maiden going two turns at Monmouth...POTOSINA looked good winning debut in a sprint, hard to knock in a wide open race. 

Race: 8 Win Place Show
1st 3 Ms Vanenzza 17.60 8.60 5.00
2nd 5 Tizahit 4.60 3.40
3rd 1 Jackie's Express 4.20
4th 6 Potosina
$2 D/Double 13/3 82.00
$2 Exacta 3-5 108.60
$2 Trifecta 3-5-1 635.00
$2 Superfecta 3-5-1-6 1961.00
Refunds: None

 

Top winner for Free picks on Friday, Bear's Hard Ten won and paid $6.30. 

Friday, October 2

WOODBINE

RACE 8

1A BEAR'S HARD TEN*** 9-2 BAL 2C
3 AIROFINDIDDERENCE 2-1
2 GIANT'S TOMB 9-2
9 KIRKLAND LAKE 5-2

*********************

Another Free Pick winner Saturday, Aug. 22, (see below), Cosmic King won and paid $8.00. But subscribers got a total of 8 picks and 4 of them won, $21.20, $8.00, $7.40, $2.80. For the week our picks went 9 for 22 (44%) with a profit of over $70 on $2 win bets, see Recent Winners for more details. Then on Monday we had one pick, it won and paid $8.00 and we had the $53 exacta COLD (plus trifecta, see Recent Winners for more details). I've decided to provide at least one pick a day Wednesday through Sunday (and somtimes on Mondays and Tuesdays when I like something) from now until the end of the year, for subscribers. You can subscribe for only $47. 

Saturday, August 22
ARLINGTON

RACE 10

8 COSMIC KING**** 8-1 BCL
10 WISTFUL SMILE 8-1
2 PLAYTON PLAYER 10-1
4 PIANO MAGIC 6-1

Picks are for turf or main track. 

 

Note: Remember that all Sharphorses Selection Service subscribers (www.sharphorses.com) get the username and password for the picks on this site: 

Wednesday, July 15

Note: So far since I started this site, here are the stats: 

BOMBS AWAY LONGSHOTS: 35, 6 wins 17%, TOTAL BET $70.00, TOTAL RETURN $93.00 PROFIT 33%

TOP PICKS: 40, 10 wins 25%, TOTAL BET $80.00, TOTAL RETURN $106.40 PROFIT 33%

MORTAL LOCKS: 2, 2 wins 100%

As you can see, both the Bombs Away Longshots and the top picks showed a 33% profit on $2 win bets, which is huge. The reason why there are more winners on top picks than Bombs Away Longshots is because I had two Mortal Locks and in two other races my Bombs Away Longshot was scratched and my 2nd choice became my top pick and won. 

Exotics: Two of the winning Bombs Away Longshots keyed big exotics. One winner that paid $9.20 keyed a $458.20 trifecta and a $1670.40 superfecta, and another winner that paid $30.00 keyed a $419.20 trifecta and a $2626.20 superfecta. When I say "keyed" I mean that if you keyed the top pick over the other 3 for $2 trifectas and superfectas you would've hit these numbers. 

Thursday, July 9

Wow, huge score on Thursday, Bombs Away Longshots have been profitable since I introduced them last year. This year we've also had $84 and $63 Bombs Away Longshot winners which you can check out on our www.sharphorses.com site under Recent Winners.

EMERALD DOWNS
2 PASSION LIVES HERE*** 8-1 BAL
6 DELICATO 5-2
3 TIGER MTN ROAD 3-1
4 OCHOCO SEE ME 9-2
Race: 4 Win Place Show
1st 2 Passion Lives Here 30.00 9.00 5.60
2nd 6 Delicato 3.20 2.80
3rd 4 Ochoco See Me Go 3.80
4th 3 Tiger Mtn Road
$2 Exacta 2-6 64.60
$2 Trifecta 2-6-4 419.20
$2 Superfecta 2-6-4-3 2626.80
Refunds: None

 

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Last updated: May 16, 2013